Two 1-2 teams just got their first wins of the season, and now they are meeting at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for the first NFL London game of 2026. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network, which means most American fans will be watching with coffee in hand and one eye on the early betting board.
The Indianapolis Colts opened as slight underdogs earlier in the week. By Sunday morning the line had swung hard the other way. As of the final numbers, Indianapolis sits as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 46.5. That six-point movement tells you everything about how the market is pricing the quarterback situations.
Key Injuries That Change the Math
Jayden Daniels is officially out again with the dislocated left elbow he suffered in Week 2. Marcus Mariota will make his second straight start after throwing three touchdowns in the Commanders’ 33-31 upset of the Seahawks. That performance bought Washington some credibility, but it also raised the bar for what the market expects from a backup.
Terry McLaurin is also inactive with a hamstring issue that appeared late in the week. Stefon Diggs becomes the clear No. 1 receiver. On the other side, Keenan Allen is out for Indianapolis with a groin injury, leaving Josh Downs as the primary target opposite a thin wide-receiver group.
Jonathan Taylor remains the most important player on the field. He already has four rushing touchdowns and is closing in on the all-time rushing record in NFL international games. If the Colts can lean on him early, the game tilts heavily toward the favorite.
Why Both Defenses Invite Points
Neither unit has inspired confidence. The Colts rank near the bottom of the league in yards allowed and have surrendered more than 30 points in two of three games. Washington is not far behind, ranking 27th in total defense and allowing an opponent passer rating of 124.4 — the worst mark in the NFL through three weeks.
That combination is why the over has attracted heavy action even after the total dropped from 49.5 earlier in the week. Both offenses convert roughly two-thirds of their red-zone trips. When two leaky defenses meet on a neutral field, the early total often proves too low.
Betting Angle and Prediction
The London factor matters more than most people admit. Teams that travel across the Atlantic often play tighter, more conservative football in the first half. The Colts have the clearer path to controlling the clock with Taylor, while Mariota will need to be efficient rather than spectacular.
My projected score is Colts 27, Commanders 21. Indianapolis covers the 4.5-point spread if Taylor finds the end zone twice and the Colts’ secondary limits Diggs after the catch. The under feels fragile given the defensive rankings, but the travel and early kickoff could keep the total under 47.
Primary play: Colts -4.5
Secondary lean: Under 46.5 if the number holds
What Bettors Should Watch Live
Watch how quickly Jonathan Taylor gets into rhythm. If Indianapolis is running the ball effectively on early downs, the Commanders’ pass rush will be forced to sell out and create opportunities for Daniel Jones. Conversely, if Mariota is forced into obvious passing situations because the run game stalls without Rachaad White, the Colts’ front can pin its ears back.
Also track the first-half total. London games historically produce slower starts. If the first half stays under 20 points, the second-half over can become attractive.
Final Thought
This is the classic early-morning international trap game. The market has already moved six points toward the Colts. That movement usually means the sharp money has spoken. Indianapolis should win, but the margin will be closer than the current spread suggests if Mariota can keep the Commanders competitive into the fourth quarter.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colts vs Commanders kick off?
Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Commanders?
Marcus Mariota is starting again with Jayden Daniels ruled out due to a dislocated elbow.
Is Terry McLaurin playing?
No. McLaurin has been ruled inactive with a hamstring injury.
What is the current betting line?
As of Sunday morning the Colts are 4.5-point favorites with a total of 46.5 points.
Which team has the better recent form?
Both teams are 1-2 and coming off their first wins of the season. The Commanders’ win over Seattle carried more weight, but the Colts’ defense showed improvement against Houston.