The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 and sitting alone atop the AFC East. The New England Patriots are 1-2 and coming off a 35-6 road loss in Jacksonville that left more questions than answers. They meet Sunday at 1 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium on CBS, and the betting market has made its feelings clear.
Buffalo opened as a 7-point favorite and the number has barely moved. The total sits around 49.5. For a rivalry game that usually produces drama, this one feels lopsided on paper. The question for bettors is whether the Patriots can keep it closer than the spread suggests.
Injury Situation Favors the Bills
New England will be without two key defensive pieces. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez is out with a shoulder injury, and defensive tackle Christian Barmore is also sidelined with a shoulder issue. That leaves a secondary already thin against a Buffalo offense that ranks first in the league in scoring at 33.7 points per game.
Drake Maye is listed with a right shoulder issue but practiced fully and carries no game designation. Still, he has thrown a league-high six interceptions through three weeks and the Patriots rank last in offensive DVOA. On the other side, the Bills have minor concerns with corner Christian Benford (toe, questionable) and defensive lineman T.J. Sanders (illness, doubtful), but their skill-position group looks healthy.
Why Buffalo Should Control This Game
Josh Allen remains one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the league even after a five-turnover performance against the Chargers last week. James Cook is running with confidence, and the receiving corps of DJ Moore and Keon Coleman is healthy enough to exploit New England’s depleted secondary.
The Patriots have scored just 36 points across three games. Their offensive line has struggled to create consistent push, and Maye’s decision-making has been erratic. Highmark Stadium is a difficult environment for a struggling road team, especially one missing its top cornerback.
Betting Angle and Prediction
Most models lean Buffalo by six to seven points. The public is heavily on the Bills, which often creates a small value window on the underdog. Still, the talent gap feels real this week.
My projected score is Bills 28, Patriots 17. Buffalo covers the 6.5 or 7-point spread if Allen protects the football and Cook sustains drives. The under has some appeal if the Patriots cannot generate explosive plays and the game turns into a methodical Buffalo victory.
Primary play: Bills -6.5 / -7
Secondary lean: Under 49.5 if the number holds
What to Watch Live
Watch how quickly the Bills attack Gonzalez’s replacement. If Moore or Coleman wins early matchups, New England will be forced into obvious passing situations and Maye’s interception rate becomes a major factor. Also track James Cook’s early carries. When Buffalo establishes the run, Allen’s play-action becomes lethal.
Divisional games can produce strange results, but the Patriots need a near-perfect performance and multiple Buffalo turnovers to keep this competitive into the fourth quarter.
Final Thought
This is the type of game where the favorite is correctly priced. The Bills are the better team at home against a depleted opponent. Taking the points with New England requires believing Maye suddenly solves his turnover issues on the road against one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses. That feels like a stretch.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patriots vs Bills kick off?
Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York.
What channel is the game on?
The game will air on CBS. Streaming is available via Paramount+ and NFL+ depending on your market.
Is Christian Gonzalez playing for the Patriots?
No. Gonzalez has been ruled out with a shoulder injury.
What is the current betting line?
The Bills are approximately 6.5 to 7-point favorites with a total near 49.5 points.
Who has the better record heading into this game?
The Bills are 3-0. The Patriots are 1-2 and coming off a heavy road loss.