Two struggling teams meet in Tampa on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on FOX. The Green Bay Packers (1-2) travel to Raymond James Stadium as roughly 3 to 3.5-point road favorites against the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3). The total has cratered to the high 30s, a clear signal that the market expects a low-scoring, messy game.
The biggest story is at quarterback. Baker Mayfield is out with a thumb injury, handing the keys to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels for his first NFL start. That alone explains why Green Bay is favored on the road despite its own offensive struggles.
Injury Situation Defines the Matchup
Tampa Bay is without its starting quarterback and several defensive pieces, including edge rusher Reuben Bain Jr. and corner Benjamin Morrison. On the Packers side, the offensive line is banged up with Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk ruled out, and the run game has been historically bad without Josh Jacobs.
Green Bay ranks last in the NFL in rushing yards per game. That puts even more pressure on Jordan Love to carry the offense against a Buccaneers defense that has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise rough start.
Why This Game Feels Low-Scoring
Neither offense has inspired confidence. The Packers are converting third downs at a poor rate and finishing drives inconsistently. Tampa Bay ranks near the bottom of the league in offensive EPA per play. With a rookie under center making his first start, the Buccaneers’ ceiling drops further.
The total has dropped more than seven points from the opening number. That kind of movement usually means sharp money expects a defensive struggle or multiple stalled drives.
Betting Angle and Prediction
Most models lean toward Green Bay covering a short road number against a backup. The under has attracted significant attention given the quarterback situation and both teams’ early-season offensive inefficiency.
My projected score is Packers 23, Buccaneers 16. Green Bay covers the 3 or 3.5-point spread if Love avoids turnovers and the defense forces Daniels into mistakes. The under looks like the stronger side of the total if both offenses continue to struggle in the red zone.
Primary play: Packers -3 / -3.5
Secondary lean: Under 38.5 / 39.5
What to Watch Live
Watch how Daniels handles early pressure. If the Packers get to him on first and second down, Tampa Bay will face long third downs and the game can spiral quickly. Also track Green Bay’s run game. Even modest success on the ground would open play-action for Love and make the short favorite more comfortable.
This is the type of game where the favorite should win, but the margin may be tighter than expected if Tampa Bay’s defense keeps the Packers from pulling away.
Final Thought
The market has correctly identified Green Bay as the stronger side against a backup quarterback. Taking the points with Tampa Bay requires believing a rookie making his first start can keep the game competitive against a desperate Packers team that needs a win. That feels like a difficult path.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Packers vs Buccaneers kick off?
Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
What channel is the game on?
The game will air on FOX. Streaming options include the FOX Sports app and FOX One.
Is Baker Mayfield playing?
No. Mayfield is out with a thumb injury. Rookie Jalon Daniels is expected to start.
What is the current betting line?
The Packers are approximately 3 to 3.5-point favorites with a total in the high 30s.
Who has the better record heading into this game?
The Packers are 1-2. The Buccaneers are 0-3.