HOUSTON — The Dallas Cowboys visit NRG Stadium to face the Houston Texans in a 1:00 p.m. ET Texas rivalry matchup on FOX. Houston sits at 0-3 while Dallas is 1-2. The market has the Texans as short home favorites, creating a clear underdog opportunity on the Cowboys side.
Current Odds and Market Snapshot
Consensus lines:
- Spread: Texans -3 / -3.5 / Cowboys +3 / +3.5
- Moneyline: Texans -144 to -162, Cowboys +130 to +141
- Total: 47.5 to 48.5
Dimers gives the Cowboys a 59.3 percent chance to cover +3.5. That ranks among the stronger underdog edges available on the early Sunday slate.
Why Cowboys +3.5 Stands Out
Houston is still searching for its first win and has struggled to score consistently, averaging just 18 points per game. C.J. Stroud and the offense have faced difficult matchups, and the defensive numbers have slipped from last season’s elite level.
Dallas owns a more productive offense led by Dak Prescott and weapons including CeeDee Lamb. Even after mixed results through three weeks, the Cowboys present a clearer path to points than a winless Texans team at home. Getting 3 or 3.5 points on the road against an 0-3 favorite creates measurable value.
Weather is not a major factor inside the controlled environment of NRG Stadium.
Key Matchup Factors
The Cowboys’ ability to move the ball and sustain drives gives them a clear identity. Houston must generate stops and find a way to score enough points to pull away. Recent form suggests Dallas is the more composed unit, even as the road underdog.
Models project a final score in the mid-20s for both teams, keeping the game close and elevating the cover probability for the underdog.
Best Bet and Score Projection
Best Bet: Cowboys +3.5
Secondary lean: Over 48.5 if both offenses find rhythm
Projected final score: Texans 25, Cowboys 23
The underdog number remains the preferred play in a matchup where the favorite has yet to win a game.
What to Watch Live
Early third-down conversions and red-zone efficiency will decide the margin. If Dallas forces Houston into long-yardage situations and converts its own opportunities, the +3.5 becomes comfortable. Watch how the Cowboys handle Stroud and whether Prescott can sustain drives against a Texans defense that has slipped.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cowboys vs Texans start?
1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at NRG Stadium. Broadcast on FOX.
Who is favored in Cowboys at Texans?
The Houston Texans are 3 to 3.5-point home favorites.
Why is Cowboys +3.5 a strong play?
Houston is 0-3 and has struggled to score. Models give Dallas a clear edge to cover the short number on the road.
What is the projected score?
Most projections lean toward a close Texans win in the mid-20s.
Is this a good underdog spot for Dallas?
Yes. Getting points against a winless favorite in a rivalry game creates one of the cleaner underdog edges on the slate.
This Texas rivalry matchup offers a clear underdog opportunity. Cowboys +3.5 stands out as the preferred play against an 0-3 Houston team.